$50 million a day, a war, and Howard Marks.

This week the most important conversation in family offices around the world isn't about new opportunities. It's about understanding what they already own.

Goldman Sachs published Cracks in Private Credit on April 29. On May 1, they recorded a podcast with Howard Marks, Michael Arougheti of Ares, and Amanda Lynam of Goldman to discuss it. That conversation has been the dominant content on institutional desks throughout May. Last week, CBRE released its own response brief: Private Credit Stress: Contained or Contagious?

The narrative that had stood intact for years, private credit as stable yield, uncorrelated, almost risk-free, is being questioned in real time. And while that happens, the Latin American investor who was sold "private credit" as safe income by their private bank is reading these headlines and not knowing what to do.

What's happening, in short. The cracks are in a specific part of the market: corporate direct lending, especially loans to software companies exposed to AI disruption. Goldman estimates that segment at 23% of the total private credit market. The reported default rate is still below 2%, but when you include selective defaults and liability management exercises, the real rate approaches 5%. BlackRock and Blue Owl have had to limit or suspend withdrawals in their semi-liquid funds over the past several months. The pressure is real.

There's an idea from Marks I carry with me, one he has been repeating in his memos for decades: the investor cannot predict, but the investor can prepare. Underwriting discipline during the years of euphoria is the only thing that separates the lenders sleeping well this week from the ones who are not. It isn't luck, it's preparation.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical context isn't helping. The war with Iran has kept a risk premium embedded in oil since February, with J.P. Morgan calculating that if Brent stays elevated through the first half, global growth contracts by 0.6% on an annualized basis. Bolivia has spent two weeks with its capital under total siege, $50 million a day evaporating in blockades, 5,000 trucks stranded, three deaths from blocked emergency vehicles. It is the country's worst economic crisis in 40 years, and the Iran war helped push it there. Every time something like this happens, Latin private capital remembers why it builds bridges to more predictable jurisdictions.

Cross-border investment into U.S. commercial real estate rose 37% year-over-year in Q1 2026 (JLL, May 2026). Latin American private wealth continues to treat the U.S. as a core diversification destination (Cushman & Wakefield, March 2026). That decision isn't slowing down, it's accelerating.

"Private credit" is a term that covers two completely different animals. On one side is corporate direct lending: loans to companies, often without physical collateral, where the lender depends on the borrower's cash flow. That's where the cracks are. That's where Marks and Goldman are focused.

On the other side is asset-backed structured credit in real estate. Mezzanine debt, preferred equity, structured debt with tangible physical collateral and a clear position in the capital stack. Pimco said it explicitly this quarter: asset-based finance within private credit offers more stable risk profiles than corporate direct lending. And CBRE published this week that the cracks on the corporate side have not crossed over into real estate-backed credit.

This is my opinion, but I believe the right question this week isn't "should I stay in private credit or not?" The right question is "what kind of private credit do I actually own?" Where do I sit in the capital stack? What collateral sits behind my position? What does this deal look like when it goes wrong?

The families who can answer those three questions with clarity are sleeping well this week. The ones who can't are reading headlines and praying it doesn't apply to them.

If after reading this you're left wondering what kind of private credit you actually own, that's the right conversation to have. Reply to this email and we'll have it.

Infinity9 is sponsoring the PGA in Quito this year.

It's the city where I grew up. Where my father sat me at the math table before breakfast. Where my mother packed the soup I still associate with being loved. It's the city I had to leave to become myself, and the one that meets me a little differently every time I come back.

This week I saw our logo next to the PGA's and felt seen by the city that raised me. The kid who played here wouldn't have imagined it. I built it, but I hadn't thought about what it would feel like when it actually arrived.

The Infinity⁹ Insider grows the way good deals grow: through trust, not advertising. If this issue sharpened your thinking, share it with one person who would value it. They can subscribe here.